Diffusion of Multiple Technology Generations: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach

Agent-based modeling has recently gained much attention in innovation and technology diffusion research. It enriches traditional approaches (like the well-known Bass model, based on differential equations) by modeling the diffusion process from a micro-level perspective. This allows, for instance, for considering the heterogeneity of consumers, who differ in their preferences, are distributed across geographical regions, are connected to each other in various ways within a social network, and act as well as react based on limited information. Although multiple successive technology generations got some attention in innovation and technology diffusion research using traditional approaches (since the Norton-Bass model in 1987), agent-based models have hardly focused on this important aspect of the diffusion process. Therefore, the presented agent-based simulation aims at investigating the diffusion of new products from multiple successive technology generations. The model accounts for novel product features in each generation, normative influences, and a social network that reflects both, spatial and social proximity between consumers. A historical validation is conducted by replicating the diffusion of computers (desktops, notebooks, tablets) on the German market from 1994 to 2013.