The Impact of Seeding, Home Continent, and Hosting on FIFA World Cup Results

Every 4 years, Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) organizes one of the largest sporting events in the world, the soccer (football) World Cup tournament. Successful players, teams, and national soccer federations are the recipients of significant financial returns, both directly from FIFA and indirectly through professional and endorsement contracts. The structure of this tournament is such that playing on one's own continent and being a seeded team have significant effects on World Cup success. Specifically, we estimate that the "continental effect" increases a team's probability of reaching the final eight by 12% points, whereas being seeded increases one's probability of making the quarterfinals by 26% points.