PAC-Bayesian stochastic model selection

PAC-Bayesian learning methods combine the informative priors of Bayesian methods with distribution-free PAC guarantees. Stochastic model selection predicts a class label by stochastically sampling a classifier according to a "posterior distribution" on classifiers. This paper gives a PAC-Bayesian performance guarantee for stochastic model selection that is superior to analogous guarantees for deterministic model selection. The guarantee is stated in terms of the training error of the stochastic classifier and the KL-divergence of the posterior from the prior. It is shown that the posterior optimizing the performance guarantee is a Gibbs distribution. Simpler posterior distributions are also derived that have nearly optimal performance guarantees.