Cattle breeding in european union until 2020

This document is the result of a collective work concerning the potential evolution, at horizon 2020, of the European cattle breeding sector (milk and meat). This study is conducted in the continuity of the work engaged by the DATAR, heading "Prospective 2015: agriculture and territories". Two complementary phases are distinguished : the first concerns our assumptions on beef and milk demand (internal consumption and trade). The second proposes an articulation between these assumptions and four scenarios of agricultural policy, contrasted according to the nature of the public intervention (supply regulation, way in which multifonctionality is taken into account,...). The various assumptions which rise from this articulation are tested on the 2000 reference situation and thus allow a first evaluation of their implications. These simulations of different demand hypothesis and agricultural policy issues show the important role of the dairy sector in the evolution of the beef meat market.