Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting

被引：37

作者：

Esit, Musa ^{[1
,2
]}

Kumar, Sanjiv ^{[1
]}

Pandey, Ashutosh ^{[3
]}

Lawrence, David M. ^{[4
]}

Rangwala, Imtiaz ^{[5
,6
]}

Yeager, Stephen ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Earth Syst Sci Program, Auburn, AL 36849 USA

[2] Gaziantep Univ, Dept Hydrol, Gaziantep, Turkey

[3] Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi, India

[4] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[5] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA

[6] Univ Colorado, North Cent Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

来源：

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE | 2021年 / 4卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

LONG-TERM DROUGHT; CLIMATE; OCEAN; PACIFIC; SYSTEM; ATMOSPHERE; EVOLUTION; SURFACE; CARBON; MEMORY;

D O I：

10.1038/s41612-021-00172-z

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Soil moisture predictability on seasonal to decadal (S2D) continuum timescales over North America is examined from the Community Earth System Modeling (CESM) experiments. The effects of ocean and land initializations are disentangled using two large ensemble datasets-initialized and uninitialized experiments from the CESM. We find that soil moisture has significant predictability on S2D timescales despite limited predictability in precipitation. On sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, precipitation variability is an order of magnitude greater than soil moisture, suggesting land surface processes, including soil moisture memory, reemergence, land-atmosphere interactions, transform a less predictable precipitation signal into a more predictable soil moisture signal.

引用

页数：8

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