The Impact of Foreign Shocks on the Polish Economy

This study concerns the impact of foreign shocks on the Polish economy. We consider output shocks from China, the euro area, and the United States. We estimate structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models with the level of foreign economic activity as an endogenous variable and foreign output shock as an exogenous variable. We identify foreign output shocks outside the model. Our results indicate that a euro-area output shock has the strongest effect on the Polish economy. Meanwhile, the spillover effects from China are similar for Poland and the euro area.