On the nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and economic and social development: evidence from Henan Province, China

The sustainable development of China's economy and society has been restricted by energy and environmental issues. With the implementation of the Rise of Central China strategy, Henan, a populous province in China, is facing the threat of an energy shortage as its economy grows steadily and the urbanization process accelerates. Using panel data of 18 cities in Henan Province for the period of 2006-2018, this study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic and social development variables based on the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and threshold regression method. The empirical results indicate that economic and social development are significantly positively correlated with total electricity consumption, although there is regional heterogeneity in this relationship. Moreover, there is evidence for a nonlinear relationship between economic and social development and urban energy consumption. These conclusions not only promote the healthy and sustainable economic development of Henan Province but also provide a reference for other provinces and cities that are experiencing rapid development in China.