Is cross border tourism an effective means to achieve political goals? Evidence from Mainland China and Taiwan

Since 2008, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan has increased rapidly. The Chinese government expects that the economic benefits brought to Taiwan by Chinese tourists could enable more Taiwanese to be willing to unify with mainland China. Our study focuses on whether such cross border tourism could help the Chinese government to achieve its political goal. Empirical results by Regression Discontinuity show that the independence-unification views that the majority of Taiwanese hold have not been influenced by the arrival of Chinese tourists. The increase in the number of Chinese tourists does not significantly affect the proportion of Taiwanese who support independence and who support maintaining the status quo. By contrast, it reduces the proportion of Taiwanese who support unification. It implies that cross border tourism may not be an effective means to achieve political goals.