Using ecological niche modelling to predict geographical expansion of an invasive species Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Asia

The potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Asia was investigated through ecological niche modelling. The modelling procedure was developed based on night environmental variables. Principal component analysis was used to describe environmental niche differentiation of the species. The analysis identified temperature and precipitation as the most important factors affecting the invasiveness of A xylophilus. This implied that water and energy played the dominant role in the potential spreading of B. xylophilus. No significant relationship was found between human population density and environmental niches exhibited by B. xylophilus. Further monitoring effect should be enhanced in those natural landscapes with moderate temperature and precipitation, for example, temperate zone in China, Japan and Korea. Areas with relatively low precipitation would suffer higher risk of the species as indicated by ecological niche visualization. Some areas in SW China will become highly susceptible to the species in the 2050 because of climate change. Controlling pest species Monochamus alternatus was a highly efficient surrogate, for controlling B. xylophilus in the fieldwork. My findings contribute to further understanding the invasive ecology of B. xylophilus and have implications in sustainable integrated pest management practices.