Application of the CERES-Wheat model to yield predictions in the irrigated plains of the Indian Punjab

The crop-environment resource synthesis model for wheat, CERES-Wheat, was used to simulate yields from 1985 to 1993 at Ludhiana, India. The simulated anthesis and physiological maturity dates, grain and total biomass yields of wheat were compared with actual observations for the commonly grown cultivar, HD-2329. The simulated and actual dates of phenological events showed deviations from only -9 to +6 days for anthesis and -6 to +3 days for physiological maturity of the crop. The model estimated the kernel weight within 88-113 % (mean 100 %) of the actual kernel weights. The model predicted the grain yields from 80 to 115 % (mean 97.5 %) of the observed grain yield. Biomass yields were predicted from 93 to 128 % (mean 110.5 %) of the observed yields. The results obtained with the model for the eight crop seasons demonstrated satisfactory predictions of phenology, growth and yield of wheat. However, the biomass simulations indicated the need for further examination of the factors controlling the partitioning of photosynthates during crop growth. The results of this study reveal that the calibrated CERES-Wheat model can be used for the prediction of wheat growth and yield in the central irrigated plains of the Indian Punjab.