Generic Incident Model for Use in Large-Scale Evacuation Simulations

Incidents and accidents can have a negative impact on the travel-time of road travelers; this impact is especially important during an evacuation. Many factors influence the rate and impact of incidents on a road facility (e.g., rainy conditions, driver behavior, pot-holes in the road); this has caused many transportation models to steer clear of generic incidents models. However, evacuation models do not require the high-fidelity that many other transportation models require. This paper introduces a new generic incident/accidents model that determines incident probabilities based on the modeled Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and determines the effects of the incident in terms of lane closes and road capacity reductions. It was implemented in the Real-time Evacuation Planning Model (RtePM) which is a tool used to help emergency planners determine the evacuation time required to clear user-defined regions in the USA.