The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

被引:64
|
作者
Heinze, Christoph [1 ,2 ]
Blenckner, Thorsten [3 ]
Martins, Helena [4 ]
Rusiecka, Dagmara [1 ,2 ]
Doscher, Ralf [4 ]
Gehlen, Marion [5 ]
Gruber, Nicolas [6 ]
Holland, Elisabeth [7 ]
Hov, Oystein [8 ,9 ]
Joos, Fortunat [10 ,11 ]
Matthews, John Brian Robin [12 ]
Rodven, Rolf [13 ]
Wilson, Simon [13 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, N-5020 Bergen, Norway
[2] Univ Bergen, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5020 Bergen, Norway
[3] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
[4] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden
[5] Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
[6] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Biogeochem & Pollutant Dynam, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
[7] Univ South Pacific, Pacific Ctr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Suva, Fiji
[8] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, N-0371 Oslo, Norway
[9] Norwegian Acad Sci & Letters, N-0271 Oslo, Norway
[10] Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys Phys Inst, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
[11] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
[12] Univ East London, Sch Architecture Comp & Engn, London E16 2RD, England
[13] Arctic Monitoring & Assessment Programme Secretar, N-9296 Tromso, Norway
基金
瑞士国家科学基金会; 欧盟地平线“2020”;
关键词
ocean; biogeochemistry; climate change; tipping points; regime shifts; MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; REGIME SHIFTS; MARINE HEATWAVES; ATMOSPHERIC CO2; EARTHS CLIMATE; ACIDIFICATION; IMPACTS; CARBON; OXYGEN; MODEL;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.2008478118
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.
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页数:9
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