Mathematical model of COVID-19 with comorbidity and controlling using non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination

被引:51
|
作者
Das, Parthasakha [1 ]
Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar [2 ]
Misra, Arvind Kumar [3 ]
Rihan, Fathalla A. [4 ]
Das, Pritha [1 ]
Ghosh, Dibakar [5 ]
机构
[1] Indian Inst Engn Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Sibpur, Howrah, India
[2] Indian Sch Mines, Indian Inst Technol, Dept Math & Comp, Dhanbad, Bihar, India
[3] Banaras Hindu Univ, Dept Math, Inst Sci, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
[4] United Arab Emirates Univ Al Ain, Dept Math Sci, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates
[5] Indian Stat Inst, Phys & Appl Math Unit, 203 BT Rd, Kolkata 700108, India
关键词
COVID-19; Comorbidity; Forward bifurcation; Shannon entropy; Optimal control; CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK; GLOBAL HEALTH; COMPLEXITY; IMPACT; TUMOR;
D O I
10.1007/s11071-021-06517-w
中图分类号
TH [机械、仪表工业];
学科分类号
0802 ;
摘要
Pandemic is an unprecedented public health situation, especially for human beings with comorbidity. Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions only remain extensive measures carrying a significant socioeconomic impact to defeating pandemic. Here, we formulate a mathematical model with comorbidity to study the transmission dynamics as well as an optimal control-based framework to diminish COVID-19. This encompasses modeling the dynamics of invaded population, parameter estimation of the model, study of qualitative dynamics, and optimal control problem for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination events such that the cost of the combined measure is minimized. The investigation reveals that disease persists with the increase in exposed individuals having comorbidity in society. The extensive computational efforts show that mean fluctuations in the force of infection increase with corresponding entropy. This is a piece of evidence that the outbreak has reached a significant portion of the population. However, optimal control strategies with combined measures provide an assurance of effectively protecting our population from COVID-19 by minimizing social and economic costs.
引用
收藏
页码:1213 / 1227
页数:15
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