System of Systems Capability Needs Analysis via a Stochastic Network Model

Deriving capability needs for a system-of-systems (SoS) is more challenging than for traditional systems because many of the component systems already exist, they are acquired and managed separately from the SoS, and the way that component systems interact to deliver capabilities is not intuitive. This paper proposes a capability needs analysis method for SoS that links the performance of the component systems into a single Markov model amenable to analysis. We demonstrate the modeling approach using the notional design of an anti-ship ballistic missile defense SoS. For the notional system, we calculate the measures of effectiveness and performance for the system. We describe how the model can be incorporated into existing systems' engineering practice. We argue that there are insufficient methods and tools for analyzing SoS in an integrative fashion, and the proposed modeling method for conducting a SoS capability needs analysis provides a mathematically elegant and promising approach to do this.