The world stock markets under geopolitical risks: Dependence structure

This paper reveals joint stochastic behaviours of the world's stock markets and geopolitical risk by a copula approach for the 37 world's stock markets over the period of June 1997 to December 2017. The various bivariate copulas show the different degrees of tail dependences and rank correlations. The differences between overall geopolitical risk index and action-related geopolitical risk index lie in the higher tail dependence with overall geopolitical risk index, the dominancy of concordant movements of stock market indexes with overall geopolitical risk and that of discordant movements of stock market indexes with action-related geopolitical risk index. The results illustrate that action-related geopolitical risk is more often adversely related to the world's stock market performances with less tail dependence.