An empirical analysis of China's state-owned forests

Using data from 28 provinces and five distinct census periods, we identify what factors have led to declines in forest growth, or equivalently, factors important in moving Chinese forests away from sustainable management since the 1970 reforms. These reforms gave increased autonomy to local forest managers. The central government sets harvest limits (quotas) so that growth rates are maintained or increased, and reforestation is required to compensate for area harvested in state forests. However, monitoring and enforcing local manager decisions is difficult, and this combined with centrally-promulgated policies creates disincentives for state forest managers to harvest and reforest according to the quotas. Our most important finding is that higher quotas lead to declines in forest growth over time. The area of state natural forests and plantations also prove to be significant and negative predictors of growth rates. This in part is due to greater opportunities in larger forests for undetected overharvesting or under-reforesting by state forest managers, and it supports a large body of anecdotal, but untested, evidence regarding the size of China's state forest enterprises and deforestation within the country. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.