Research on risk analysis for construction project schedule based on flexible network simulation

Construction projects are complex in nature and have many inherent uncertainties. These uncertainties have a very significant effect on project. The flexible network simulation based on SWARM platform is applied to study the construction project schedule risk in this-research, which makes lots of improves to the current model. Differing from the traditional PERT network planning considering only single critical path, this research introduces the uncertainties to the simulation duration and critical path. Then the statistical analysis is adopted to decide the simulation running times, and the completion probability and risk degree will be obtained after that. In addition, the model identify the high risk working procedure according to the activity critical index(ACI), what is more important is that the new method computing safe use rate of path float. The case study indicates that the method can provide more information about construction management to decision-makers and managers who can predominate project risk as a whole.