Toward a Decentralized Forecast System for Distributed Power Generation

A general forecasting concept for power systems is developed based on a detailed requirement analysis concerning a forecasting system for supply-dependent feed-in units within the present and future electrical grid. The fundamental idea is an agent-based system in which each single supply entity determines and communicates its own feed-in forecast. The contribution describes the proposed architecture and defines a corresponding data structure which includes information about the uncertainty of the individual forecast. To demonstrate the feasibility, the design of the forecast agent at entity level is presented in more detail and discussed in relation to a solar energy system.