A Data-Driven Multiple Model Framework for Intention Estimation

This paper presents a data-driven multiple model framework for estimating the intention of a target from observations. Multiple model (MM) state estimation methods have been extensively used for intention estimation by mapping one intention to one dynamic model assuming one-to-one relations. However, intentions are subjective to humans and it is difficult to establish the one-to-one relations explicitly. The proposed framework infers the multiple-to-multiple relations between intentions and models directly from observations that are labeled with intentions. For intention estimation, both the relations and model probabilities of an Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) state estimation approach are integrated into a recursive Bayesian framework. Taking advantage of the inferred multiple-to-multiple relations, the framework incorporates more accurate relations and avoids following the strict one-to-one relations. Numerical and real experiments were performed to investigate the framework through the intention estimation of a maneuvered quadrotor. Results show higher estimation accuracy and superior flexibility in designing models over the conventional approach that assumes one-to-one relations.