Selection of time series forecasting model, using a combination of linguistic and numerical criteria

被引:0
|
作者
Afanasieva, T. [1 ]
Sapunkov, A. [1 ]
机构
[1] Ulyanovsk State Tech Univ, Informat Syst Dept, Severny Venec 32, Ulyanovsk 432027, Russia
基金
俄罗斯基础研究基金会;
关键词
Time series; model selection; forecasting; linguistic description; general fuzzy tendency; FUZZY-LOGIC; REGRESSION;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
One of the problems in forecasting is selection a subset of suitable models, which perform accurate results not only in tested part of time series (TS), but in real forecast. In previous our paper a TS forecasting technique was proposed, where a framework of TS model selection using linguistic and numerical criteria was proposed. To choose a subset of suitable models from a given set of TS models we developed a linguistic description of TS behavior based on identification of TS general tendency. In this paper we focus on extension of a linguistic description of TS behavior and study it's efficiency in out of sample TS part. The study of a proposed framework in forecasting of 91 TS showed the improvement of accuracy in comparison with TS model selection, which used a numerical criterion only.
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页码:341 / 345
页数:5
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