Dynamic input-output models with stochastic time lags

In this paper the random balanced solution to forward-lag-type and mixed-lag-type dynamic input-output models is given. The exact value of the essential time-lag parameter for both models cannot usually be found, especially in the case of economies in transition. The reason for this is the lack of pertinent statistical data. The problems with statistical data are caused by changes of the structure of the economy accompanied by a high rate of inflation. Some data are still computed using old methods typical for the centrally planned economy and the collection of the other data follows by means of market-oriented methods. For this reason different data are not compatible, especially those that concern investment outlays. Usually, experts can establish the most probable or expected value of time-fag. Thus, the growth factor and, consequently, the respective balanced growth paths of both models are random. In this paper the general formulas for stochastic characteristics of both kinds of models are derived.