The effect of price and tax policies on the decision to smoke among men in Kenya

Aims To assess the impact of cigarette prices on male smoking initiation and cessation in Kenya from 1960 to 2014. Design Longitudinal study using individual level data from the 2014 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) and historical data on cigarette prices. Setting Kenya. Participants A total of 2079 men, among whom 619 identified as ever-smokers. Measurements Self-reported data on the years of smoking initiation and cessation, merged with historical data on cigarette prices. We employed several methodologies to estimate the effect of prices on smoking transitions, including a pooled linear model with propensity score matching (PSM). Results Price increases were negatively associated with smoking initiation, with price elasticity of initiation ranging from -0.03 (-0.066 to -0.000) to -0.14 (-0.216 to -0.0563). The association was two to three times larger for younger male adults compared with the average. Price increases were correlated with increased cessation for younger males, with a price elasticity of 0.08 (0.027-0.141) and for low-income males with a price elasticity of 0.16 (-0.752 to 0.429). Conclusions Cigarette price increases in Kenya between 1960 and 2014 were negatively associated with males' smoking initiation and positively associated with younger and lower-income males' cessation.