Delta Shock Index Predicts Outcomes in Pediatric Trauma Patients Regardless of Age

Introduction: Changes in the shock index (Delta SI) can be a predictive tool but is not established among pediatric trauma patients. The aim of our study was to assess the impact of Delta SI on mortality in pediatric trauma patients. Methods: We performed a 2017 analysis of all pediatric trauma patients (age 0-16 y) from the ACS-TQIP. SI was defined as heart rate(HR)/systolic blood pressure(SBP). We abstracted the SI in the field (EMS), SI in the emergency department (ED) and calculated the change in SI (Delta SI = ED SI-EMS SI). Patients were divided into four age groups: 0-3 y, 4-6 y, 7-12 y, and 1316 y and substratified into two groups based on the value of the age-group-specific Delta SI cutoff obtained with receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis; +Delta SI and -Delta SI. Our outcome measure was mortality. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed. Results: We included 31,490 patients. Mean age was 10.6 4.6 y, and 65.8% were male. The overall mortality rate was 1.4%. In the age group 0-3 y the cutoff point for Delta SI was 0.29 with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.70 [0.62-0.79], Delta SI cutoff 4-6 y was 0.41 AUC 0.81 [0.70-0.92], Delta SI cutoff 7-12 y was 0.05 AUC 0.83 [0.76-0.90], and Delta SI cutoff 13-16 y was 0.13 AUC 0.75 [0.69-0.81]. On the Cox regression analysis, +Delta SI was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality and 24-h mortality (P <= 0.01). Conclusions: Vital signs vary by age group in children, but Delta SI inherently accounts for this variation. Delta SI predicts mortality and may be utilized as a predictor to help guide triage of pediatric trauma patients. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.