Scenarios analysis of energy mix for road transportation sector in Indonesia

The design of future transportation energy mix has become an important issue in Indonesia. Oil-based fuels such as gasoline and diesel seems to be infeasible options in the future due to limited availability, high subsidy, and environmental issues. This paper presents energy mix model for transportation sector in Indonesia. The model considers a variety of feasible technology options and includes three competing objectives, i.e., energy consumption, fuel subsidy, and CO2 emission. Scenarios were developed to include business as usual (BAU), the introduction of compress natural gas (CNG) technology, vehicle retirement program, the implementation of hybrid vehicles energy mix which considers future behavioral factors. The result indicates that the most effective strategy to reduce energy consumption and eventually fuel subsidy is through retirement program of old vehicles. The introduction of the CNG vehicle on public transportation appears to give little significance in reducing the annual subsidy costs, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.