The dynamics of political power: The socio-technical transition of California's electricity system to renewable energy

Global electricity generation depends on fossil fuels as a primary fuel and the negative environmental consequences of fossil fuel combustion are well known. This makes transitioning electricity generation to renewable energy sources a critical component of climate change mitigation. Energy transitions involve complex sociotechnical systems, extending beyond economics or policy to include societal relationships with energy such as processes of manifesting societal will as policy decisions. Yet current energy-economy-climate-models are economy-policy centric and fail to include such socio-technical feedbacks in energy transition dynamics, especially the influence of policy formation on the rate of energy transitions. This missing feedback is incorporated into a system dynamics model of California's electricity generation. The model is grounded in the advocacy coalition framework and examines competition between pro-fossil and pro-renewable interest's influence on policy formation dynamics. Results show policy volatility, where competition drives inconsistent policy enactment and lifespan. This impacts transition dynamics as policies influence profitability analyses, and subsequent decisions in new generation capacity investments. Political lock-in was hypothesized to be the most critical influence on transition dynamics, as well-funded pro-fossil policy manipulation creates barriers to renewable energy that green advocacy coalitions struggle to overcome. However, results show this is less influential than anticipated and carbon lock-in, defined as the long lifespan of fossil fuel technologies, is also a critical driver of transition rates. Early retirement of fossil fuel electricity generation technologies allows current investment dynamics to favor higher capacities of renewables. This is a novel finding, and an open area for future research.