Impacts of meteorological variations on urban lake water quality: a sensitivity analysis for 12 urban lakes with different trophic states

Response of 12 urban lakes with different trophic states in Beijing to variations of meteorological factors was studied in this research. Monthly water quality parameters, including total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen, and water temperature, were analyzed from 2009 to 2011. Results indicated that TN in the urban lakes did not exhibit significant response to meteorological variations owing to relatively lower TN concentration in the urban soil. For the highly eutrophic lakes, TP, chlorophyll a, COD, and BOD were positively correlated with precipitation, and negatively correlated with wind speed (p < 0.05). Chlorophyll a showed significant positive correlation with TP and temperature. Moreover, the abrupt increase of TP occurred in spring, which was associated with higher temperature induced internal phosphorus loading. On average, temperature/precipitation and wind speed/sunshine duration contributed to 10.7-43.8 and 8.3-19.2 % of the variations in water quality. In contrast, lakes with mesotrophication/light eutrophication did not show significant sensitivity to meteorological variations owing to their better buffer capacity and regulation effect of algae growth. Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency as well as decreased wind speed during the past five decades; the above results infer that water quality of most urban lakes of Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend. This study suggested that urban lakes with different trophic states will respond differently to global climate change, and highly eutrophic lakes might face big challenges of water quality deterioration and algae bloom.