Operation Optimization of Factory Power Generation Plant Considering an Uncertainty

Factory power generation plants supply electric power and heat to manufacturing lines. Because demand changes are uncertain, the power plant must adjust its output to match the demand and to avoid violation of constraints such as inverse load flow. Conventionally, these violations have been avoided by purchasing surplus electric power. However, surplus power raises the energy cost. There exists an optimization method that considers uncertainty in demands for cogeneration systems, and uses a triangle function to approximate the probability distribution. However, this method does not consider the tail of the probability distribution. In this paper we propose an operation optimization method considering an uncertainty in the demands for factory power plants. The proposed method aims to avoid violation of constraints and to reduce energy cost. Through simulation experiments, we confirm the validity of the proposed method. (C) 2014Wiley Periodicals, Inc.