Can an evolutionary approach to development predict post-war economic growth?

Might differences in levels of development prior to the era of industrialisation explain some of the dramatic differences in rates of economic growth across developing countries il 2 recent decades.' This article explores the logic behind such a conjecture, and presents evidence that it is true, using population and agrarian densities as proxies for early development. Basic growth regressions are estimated for a sample of developing countries in 1960-90, and for provinces in one country, China, in 1978-92. The robustness of the results to the inclusion of other measures, including ethnic heterogeneity and 'social capability', is also shown.