Evaluation of relative density indices for sika deer in eastern Hokkaido, Japan

We evaluated relative density indices of sika deer (Cervus nippon) to aid in population management. We monitored sika deer population trends from 1992 to 2002 in the eastern part of Hokkaido Island, northern Japan, using spotlight surveys, aerial surveys, catch per unit effort (CPUE), sighting per unit effort (SPUE), and cost of damage to agriculture and forestry. We assumed that the artificial bias in the spotlight index would be lower than in other indices, and compared temporal patterns of other indices to those produced using spotlight surveys using model II regression. There was a significant correlation between the damage cost index and the spotlight index, and both indices indicated consistent population trends. Managers used CPUE as a tool to determine hunting quota efficiency. The SPUE index had the smallest standard error among the indices, and the spotlight survey index had the second smallest standard error. Overall, the spotlight survey was the most useful index because its estimate error was small and it was precise in showing population trends; however, spotlight surveys did lead to underestimation once in 1994. The SPUE index seems to be effective in checking the validity of the spotlight index, but there are so many environmental and demographic uncertainties that several independent indices should be used and crosschecked for accurate evaluation of population trends.