Water regime of Vrana Lake in Dalmatia (Croatia): changes, risks and problems

Vrana Lake in Dalmatia is a karstic kryptodepression connected to the nearby sea through the karstic subsoil and a canal. Due to interactions with the sea, lake water salinity increases greatly during severe dry periods, seriously endangering the ecosystem. Trend analysis (1961-2010) reveals a decrease in precipitation and surface inflow, but an increase in air temperature, and in sea and lake water levels. Lake inflow and water losses are only partially monitored. Average annual inflow from the monitored part of the catchment is 1722m(3)s(-1), but total inflow is significantly greater; the average difference between total inflow and cumulative water losses is 3072m(3)s(-1). The paper uses modelling to evaluate total inflow into the lake system, taking into consideration projected climate changes/variations till 2100 from the RegCM3 and ALADIN climate models. The analysis indicates marked decrease in discharge values by the end of this century, by as much as 60%.