The Russian economic crisis and the future of Russian economic reform

The 1998 economic crisis and its aftermath raised the biggest possible questions about Russia and its capacity to begin an economic recovery in the near future. In this article I shall try at least to narrow down the range of possible answers to those questions. The first section is a brief, summary review of Russian economic reform attempts from Gaidar to Kirienko-that is, from late 1991 to the summer of 1998. To put that record in context, I shall compare it with that of other ex-communist countries. The second section is a consideration of some of the possible explanations of Russia's weak performance in the 1990s, including some hindsight about Western assistance. The third section is a closer look at the 1998 crisis: first a narrative and then an assessment of both proximate and underlying causes. The fourth section is a more speculative consideration of the possible effects of the crisis on Russian economic policies in 1999-2001. Finally, I shall offer some thoughts about the implications for the policies of Western countries towards Moscow.