Hydro-Climate Variability and Trend Analysis in the Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile River, Ethiopia

Understanding hydro-climate variability in areas where communities are strongly dependent on subsistence natural resource-based economies at finer spatial resolution can have substantial benefits for effective agricultural water management. This study investigated the hydro-climate variability and trend of the Jemma sub-basin, in the Upper Blue Nile (Abbay) basin, using Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Climate data from 11 weather stations inside the basin and two major streams were used for the statistical analysis. The climate data were also correlated with the ENSO phenomenon to explain drivers of the variability. The results show that the sub-basin has been experiencing normal to moderate variability in the annual and Kiremt season rainfalls, but high variability and declining trend for 73% of the minor (Belg) season rainfall, negatively affecting the planting of short-cycle crops that account for about 20% of crop production in the study area. Generally, strong El Nino (SST anomaly >1) has been correlated to a substantial decline in the Belg season rainfall. Stream-flow variability has also been found to be very high (CV > 30%) in both river flow monitoring stations. Subsequently, ensuring agricultural water security for short-cycle crop production seems to be a risky and daunting task unless supplemented with groundwater conjunctive use or water harvesting.