The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default

被引：31
|
作者：
Trebesch, Christoph [1 ]
Zabel, Michael [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Munich, Dept Econ, Schackstr 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
[2] Univ Munich, Chair Macroecon, Ludwigstr 28, D-80539 Munich, Germany
来源：
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2017年 / 92卷
关键词：
Sovereign debt crises; Debt restructuring; Economic growth; Reputation; DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS; EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL; PUBLIC DEBT; RISK; REPUDIATION; MATURITY; RELIEF; CRISES;
D O I：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.10.004
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
How costly are sovereign debt crises? In this paper we study output losses during sovereign default and debt renegotiation episodes since 1980. In contrast to previous work, we account for the severity of default and not only for its occurrence. Specifically, we distinguish between "hard" and "soft" defaults, using new data on debtor payment and negotiation behavior and on the size of haircuts towards private external creditors. We show that hard defaults are associated with a much steeper drop in GDP, of up to ten percent, compared to soft defaults. The results are consistent with theoretical models assuming proportional output costs of default.
引用
收藏
页码：416 / 432
页数：17
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