Study on moderate earthquake risk of the Xinfengjiang reservoir from 3D P-wave velocity structure and current seismicity parameters

In this paper, we determined the Xingfengjiang Reservoir earthquake sequence location from June 2007 to July 2014 and 3D P-wave velocity structure by a simultaneous inversion method. On that basis, we mapped the b-value 3D distribution. The results show the low b-value distribution consists with the high velocity zone(HVZ) and most earthquakes occurred around the HVZ. Under the reservoir dam there is a strong tectonic deformation zone, as the centre exit Renzishi fault F2, Nanshan - Aotou faults F4, Heyuan fault F1 and Shijiao-xingang-baitian fault F5. M6.1 Xinfengjiang earthquake, 19 Mar 1962, occurred in the strong tectonic deformation zone, and now the zone b >= 0.7, so a short period of the original earthquake occur more unlikely. The b-value of the HVZ under Xichang(in the northwest corner of XFJ Reservoir) ranges between 0.4 to 0.7 suggesting the rate of stress accumulations is greater than the speed of seismic energy release since 2012. We don't exclude the possibility that the HVZ becomes the seismogenic asperity, and will occur M >= 5 earthquake.