Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Rotor Forgings

We developed and successfully applied a direct simulation Monte Carlo (MC) scheme to quantify the risk of fracture for heavy-duty rotors commonly used in the energy sector. The developed probabilistic fracture mechanics (FM), high-performance computing methodology, and code ProbFM routinely assess relevant modes of operation for a component by performing billions of individual FM simulations. The methodology can be used for new design and life optimization of components, as well as for the risk of failure RoF quantification of in service rotors and their requalifications in conjunction with nondestructive examination techniques, such as ultrasonic testing (UT). The developed probabilistic scheme integrates material data, UT information, duty-cycle data, and finite element analysis (FEA) in order to determine the RoF. The methodology provides an integrative and robust measure of the fitness for service and allows for a save and reliable operation management of heavy-duty rotating equipment.