Spatial-temporal distribution of climate suitability of winter wheat in North China Plain for current and future climate scenarios

Wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP) is critical to food security in China; however, it is affected by climate change. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of climate suitability of wheat in NCP may help to rationally use climatic resources as well as reduce natural disasters. Out of 30 general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, the 5 best GCMs were selected for each meteorological factor to project daily data in 2021-2100 under representative concentration path 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for 23 national climatic stations in NCP. Based on agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, the suitability of water, temperature, and solar radiation was analyzed. The results showed that the water suitability increases from 0.30 at present to 0.40 for 2021-2100 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the lowest mostly distributed in the northwest. The temperature suitability varies from 0.80 at present to 0.75 for 2021-2100 and generally increases from north to south; however, at stage 2 (from overwintering to greening), it drops from 0.67 to 0.50 under RCP4.5 and 0.20 under RCP8.5 for 2081-2100. The decreases of water suitability at stage 5 (from heading to milking) and temperature suitability at stage 2 show negative effect of climate change to winter wheat. The solar radiation suitability shows an increasing trend under two scenarios in the future. Finally, the integrated climate suitability shows a little increasing trend, indicating climate condition of winter wheat in NCP will be slightly improved.