Risk assessment for satellite launch operations

A new methodology is developed for assessing the risk associated with launching satellites in space by use of Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVs). The objective is to assess the Maximum Probably Loss (MPL) for third party insurance purposes, which is a requirement for licensing of private operators. Failures during the boost, orbital vehicle, and return phases of the flight that could lead to impact of the rocket or its stages on the ground are considered. Simple geometric model are used to evaluate the probability that assets of various form and size on the ground will be hit by a stray rocket or vehicle stage. Models for the loss resulting from hitting an asset are also developed. The methodology is applied to a proposed launch site in South Australia.