The United States, North Korea and South Korea

The recent announcement that the US will resume talks with North Korea represents another chapter in the roller coaster ride of the first two years of the Bush administration. After a bumpy initial summit with President Kim Dae-jung, the completion of the US policy review last June brought a sigh of relief, in part because the summit had drastically lowered expectations that the new administration would even continue a policy of engaging Pyongyang. The outcome was certainly not as bad as some experts expected but pointed to a difficult road ahead. While the administration professed to be willing to meet anywhere, anytime, the president's Axis of Evil speech in January once again heightened fears about America's intentions. So did the administration's refusal to certify that the North Koreans were complying with the 1994 US-DPRK Agreed Framework. But now with the agreement to resume talks, US-North Korean relations may be entering a new phase. Whether these talks show a bottoming out of the relationship or a "dead cat bounce" remains unclear. The resumption of these talks at the same time as the two Koreas seem posed to resume contacts makes for a complicated situation. While the recent visit of President Bush to Seoul did much to ease the troubled bilateral relationship, the potential for problems remains both during the remainder of President Kim Dae-jung's term in office and beyond, as the two allies once again try to reengage Pyongyang. That potential will be acute if North Korea seeks rapid progress in its relationship with Seoul, but the chances of that seem minimal.