Research on Cognitive Biases of Improvised Decision-Making Based on "Scenario-Coping With"

This paper analyzes the primary factors that affect improvised decision-making under emergency. Based on "Scenario-Coping with", it offers four improvised decision-making types: Creative type, variant type, adaptive type and alternative type, it also discusses the main cognitive biases of different improvised decision-making by using the case analysis mode. Next the paper proposes controlling method that decision-maker first determine the appropriate improvised decision-making through scenario analysis, and then adopt the single or combined strategy to control cognitive biases. At the end, taking the nuclear accident in Japan as example, it puts forward the corresponding corrective measures for the cognitive biases appeared in this decision process with the strategies proposed before.