Combined use of land use regression and BenMAP for estimating public health benefits of reducing PM2.5 in Tianjin, China

To assess the public health benefits of reducing PM2.5 in Tianjin, we created an annual air quality surface with a land use regression (LUR) model conducted at a high spatial resolution (1 km). The predictors included in the final model were population density, road length within a 1000 m buffer, industrial land area within a 2000m buffer and distance to the coast. The fitting R-2 and the leave-one-out-cross validation (LOOCV) R-2 of the PM2.5 LUR models were 0.78 and 0.73, respectively, suggesting that the predicted PM2.5 concentrations fitted well with the measured values for the entire year. Daily air quality surfaces were established based on historic concentration data and interpolation method. We evaluated avoided cases of mortality and morbidity in Tianjin, assuming achievement of China's current air quality daily and annual standards (No. GB3095-2012). Reducing the daily average PM2.5 to the daily Class II standard (75 mu g/m(3)), the avoided emergency department visits, the deaths for cardiovascular disease and the deaths for respiratory disease are 85,000 (95% confidence interval (CI), 17,000-150,000), 2000 (95% CI, 920-3100) and 280 (95% CI, 94-460) per year respectively, and the monetary values are 23-42 million yuan, 180-4800 million yuan and 25-670 million yuan per year in 2015 yuan year respectively. Reducing the annual average PM2.5 to the annual Class II standard (35 mu g/m(3)), the avoided emergency department visits, the deaths for cardiovascular disease and the deaths for respiratory disease are 59,000 (95% CI, 12,000-110,000), 1400 (95% CI, 640-2100) and 200 (95% CI, 66-320) per year respectively, and the monetary values are 16-29 million yuan, 130 to 3400 million yuan and 18 to 480 million yuan per year in 2015 yuan year respectively. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.