Life cycle greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas: a probabilistic approach

With the increase in natural gas (NG) production in recent years, primarily from shale gas, some sources, including the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have suggested that upstream methane emissions are increasing. Much of the recent controversy has centered on emissions during well drilling, testing, and completion even though emissions downstream of the wellhead are also of concern. The study critically assessed the current state of knowledge about the life cycle GHG footprint of NG, analyzed the assumptions, data and analysis methodologies used in the existing literature. This study comprehensively analyzed the emission of methane from different stage of the life of well for conventional and unconventional NG using the EPA's revised 2011 estimates as well as other existing literature and publicly available government data. The study proposed a probabilistic model to estimate the range of total GHG footprint of NG with varying probabilities. Through the bottom up approach starting from the well construction to the delivery of NG to the small user and using Monte Carlo simulation, the study identified the critical sources of fugitive emissions from the NG. As expected, emissions from well completion and periodic emissions (e.g. liquid unloading in the case of onshore conventional wells and workovers in the case of unconventional wells) are significant contributors to the overall GHG footprint of NG, and possess large opportunity for reduction. Finally the application of probabilistic model is demonstrated through a case study using the data from the Montney and Horn River shale gas basins in the Northern British Columbia to estimate the range of total GHG footprint of shale gas with varying probabilities. The study found that the GHG footprint of Montney and Horn River wells are much smaller than that of Barnett shale (which is representative of US shale gas) due to strict flaring regulations followed in BC. The study also undercuts the outcome of Howarth et al. (Clim Chang Lett 106:679-690, 2011), which states that the GHG footprint of shale gas is at least 20 % greater than coal.