MONETARY POLICY: SHORT-TERM STABILIZATION VERSUS LONG-TERM RISKS

Central banks of major advanced economies have already started their sixth year of the greatest ever experiment in monetary policy at place. First, special measures were taken to prevent collapse of financial intermediation. At the same time main policy rates were cut down to historical lows hitting the zero lower bound quite soon after the onset of the financial crisis. After that central banks realised various unconventional measures in order to support their weak economies. While exceptional instruments aimed at restoring financial markets seem to have been inevitable to avert a collapse of a much greater magnitude in the short run, some other measures have remained disputable. Not only had these measures limited effectiveness in restoring stronger and sustainable economic growth, but concerns have also been raised recently about their unintended consequences. These side-effects concern not only domestic economies but international spillovers on many vulnerable less advanced and/or developing economies have been evident. Moreover, potential risks of the unprecedented measures may start to act fully in a longer horizon. Quantitative easing has led to enormous increases in balance sheets of the Fed, the BoE and ECB; however structural differences on the asset side have been evident. Main challenge for major central banks thus seems to be the right timing and structure of inevitable exit strategies in the near future so that a smooth exit with minimal side effects could be guaranteed.