DRIVING MECHANISMS AND PEAK LEVELS OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODEL

As climate change is an important environmental problem around the world, the development trends and the time of peak carbon emissions in China arouse extensive international attention. In this study, a simultaneous equation model is constructed from a systems perspective to investigate the dynamic action mechanisms of economic scale, industrial structure, energy mix, and energy efficiency or their internal disturbance factors on carbon emissions. The results specify that rapid economic development is accompanied by large amounts of carbon emissions. Under the premise of a low-carbon economy, adjustment of energy mix and industrial structure is the main way to reduce carbon emissions. From the efficiency standpoint, the increase in energy utilization rate could also effectively mitigate carbon emissions. Based on a simultaneous equation model reasonable predictions of the endogenous and exogenous variables are produced in the system, and the development trend of carbon emissions in China in the near future is analyzed. The simulation analysis determines that under the assumption of 5.5% economic growth, carbon emissions could reach a peak at 11.2 billion tons in China by 2030. Finally, according to simulations of the carbon emissions development trend, policy suggestions for energy savings and emission reduction in China are provided. These provide a reference point for policy-making to achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions in 2030 in China.