A new methodology for predicting software reliability in the random field environments

This paper presents a new methodology for predicting software reliability in the field environment. Our work differs from some existing models that assume a constant failure detection rate for software testing and field operation environments, as this new methodology considers the random environmental effects on software reliability. Assuming that all the random effects of the field environments can be captured by a unit-free environmental factor, eta, which is modeled as a random-distributed variable, we establish a generalized random field environment (RFE) software reliability model that covers both the testing phase and the operating phase in the software development cycle. Based on the generalized RFE model, two specific random field environmental reliability models are proposed for predicting software reliability in the field environment: the gamma-RFE model, and the beta-RFE model. A set of software failure data from a telecommunication software application is used to illustrate the proposed models, both of which provide very good fittings to the software failures in both testing and operation environments. This new methodology provides a viable way to model the user environments, and further makes adjustments to the reliability prediction for similar software products. Based on the generalized software reliability model, further work may include the development of software cost models and the optimum software release policies under random field environments.