Markov Chains and Reliability Analysis for Reinforced Concrete Structure Service Life

From field studies and the literature, it was found that the degradation of concrete over time can be modelled probabilistically using homogeneous Markov Chains. To confirm this finding, this study presents an application of Markov Chains associated with the reliability analysis of experimental results of the degradation of concrete by chlorides. Experimental results were obtained for chloride penetration originating from non-accelerated tests in concretes in which the water/binder ratio was variable (0.40, 0.50 and 0.60) and that were produced with Pozzolanic Portland cement that was exposed for six months to the action of NaCl. Using a simulation process, the failure and safety probabilities were calculated by reliability and using Markov Chains, a service life project was estimated (a period of corrosion initiation). Compared to a concrete structure itself, the average error of service life predicted using Markov was approximately 14%. The results show a promissory methodology, in combination with the determination of concrete cover thickness, according to the required service life.