U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) have produced monthly to seasonal hydrologic forecast ensemble outlooks for many years using historical precipitation and temperature as the forcing data for the ensembles within the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS). This has worked well for many water resources applications relying on long lead-time ensembles of greater than thirty days. In the eastern United States, there is considerable interest in shorter lead-time ensembles, particularly in the period of one to seven days that convey hydrologic forecast uncertainty resulting directly from the uncertainties in precipitation and temperature forecasts, with a focus on flood forecasting. This paper demonstrates the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ensembles as the forcing for hydrologic models within the NWS hydrologic forecasting system, the Deltares Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) based Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), utilizing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system techniques. This approach makes it possible to produce probabilistic hydrologic forecasts that incorporate the skill and uncertainty of atmospheric models. Significant issues exist with directly using the meteorological ensembles, including biases and spatial resolution of the available data, but the approach allows for the generation of valuable information for end-user decision makers, covering a time frame for which there is little current probabilistic hydrologic guidance available. This paper presents a description of a joint project among four NWS RFCs to incorporate ensemble forecasts from a variety of meteorological model ensembles. These include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), and Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF). Verification results are presented for operational NAEFS and SREF based MMEFS real-time probabilistic hydrologic forecasts covering multi-year period. Improvements to the MMEFS are also recommended.
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Virginia Tech, Via Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Ohio River Forecast Ctr, 1901 South State Route 134, Wilmington, OH 45177 USAVirginia Tech, Via Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
Adams, Thomas E., III
Chen, Sherry
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NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Ohio River Forecast Ctr, 1901 South State Route 134, Wilmington, OH 45177 USA
1438 Meadow Ridge Cir, Wilmington, OH 45177 USAVirginia Tech, Via Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
Chen, Sherry
Dymond, Randel
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Virginia Tech, Via Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USAVirginia Tech, Via Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
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Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO 80528 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
He, Minxue
Regonda, Satish
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Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO 80528 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
Regonda, Satish
Wu, Limin
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LEN Technol Inc, Oak Hill, VA 20171 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
Wu, Limin
Lee, Haksu
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LEN Technol Inc, Oak Hill, VA 20171 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
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NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
HYDRIS Hydrol, St Mathieu De Treviers, FranceNOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Demargne, Julie
Wu, Limin
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NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
LEN Technol, Oak Hill, VA USANOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Wu, Limin
Regonda, Satish K.
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NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO USANOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Regonda, Satish K.
Brown, James D.
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Hydrol Solut Ltd, Southampton, Hants, EnglandNOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Brown, James D.
Lee, Haksu
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LEN Technol, Oak Hill, VA USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Climate Water & Weather Serv, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USANOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Lee, Haksu
He, Minxue
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NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO USANOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
机构:
LEN Technol Inc, Oak Hill, VA 20171 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
Wu, Limin
He, Minxue
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LEN Technol Inc, Oak Hill, VA 20171 USA
Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO 80528 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
He, Minxue
Regonda, Satish
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机构:
LEN Technol Inc, Oak Hill, VA 20171 USA
Riverside Technol Inc, Ft Collins, CO 80528 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
Regonda, Satish
Lee, Haksu
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LEN Technol Inc, Oak Hill, VA 20171 USA
NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USAHydrol Solut Ltd, Bournemouth BH1 1BL, Dorset, England
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TerraPredictions, 1724 Sage LN, Blacksburg, VA 24060 USA
NOAA, NWS, Ohio River Forecast Ctr, Wilmington, OH USATerraPredictions, 1724 Sage LN, Blacksburg, VA 24060 USA
Adams, Thomas E., III
Dymond, Randel L.
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Virginia Tech, Charles Edward Via Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24060 USATerraPredictions, 1724 Sage LN, Blacksburg, VA 24060 USA