Performance and cost analysis of liquid fuel production from H2 and CO2 based on the Fischer-Tropsch process

Electro-fuels can be produced from concentrated sources of carbon dioxide and hydrogen using electricity generated from renewable sources; this process enables energy storage at high volumetric energy density. Among the electro-fuels options, FT (Fischer-Tropsch) fuel is attractive for heavy-duty trucks and non-road transportation applications. The present study conducts a techno-economic analysis of FT liquid fuel production from H-2 and CO2 using a detailed performance analysis. Minimum fuel selling price is estimated for a broad range of H-2 and CO2 prices and for a range of potential CO2 credits. The analysis indicates that H-2 price has the largest impact on the minimum selling price of FT fuel. FT fuel production with a CO2 price of $17.3/metric ton requires an H-2 price of $0.8/kg to be cost-competitive with the pre-tax petroleum diesel price of $3.1/gal in 2050 (before the application of any CO2 credits). When the H-2 price is $2.0/kg from central water electrolysis (2020 target), the minimum selling price of the FT fuel is $5.4-5.9/gal. A sensitivity analysis shows that future system optimization of FT fuel production could focus on improving the H-2 and CO2 recycle contributions and FT fuel conversion ratio. The analysis results can be combined with various upstream systems for H-2 and CO2 production.