The Decline and Resurgence of the Kuomintang in Taiwan

What explains the decline and resurgence of dominant parties? While economic performance, policy adaptation, electoral rules, and generational replacement have been offered as common causes for the decline of one-party dominance, the case of Taiwan challenges those prevailing explanations. This paper focuses on how partisan splits from the Kuomintang (KMT) and their (dis)coordination with the KMT first undermined and then recovered the KMT's dominance. Furthermore, this study pays particular attention to cross-strait relations in shaping the dynamics of electoral coalitions in Taiwan. This study argues that China's military threat and Taiwan's deepening economic integration to the Mainland, along with other international forces, have influenced Taiwanese public opinion on cross-strait policy and have thus affected electoral coalition formation and the electoral fortunes of the KMT.