FAO's AVHRR-based Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) for global drought monitoring

Agricultural production is highly dependent on climate variability in many parts of the world. In particular, drought may severely reduce crop yields, potentially affecting food availability at local, regional, and global scales. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) operates the Global Early Warning System (GIEWS), which monitors global food supply and demand. One of the key challenges is to obtain synoptic information on a recurrent and timely basis about drought-affected agricultural zones. This is needed to quickly identify areas requiring immediate attention. The Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), based on imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteorological Operational Satellite (METOP) satellites, was specifically developed to meet this need. The system is based on a methodology developed by Rojas, Vrieling, and Rembold over the African continent. This approach has been modified and adapted to the global scale to produce an agricultural stress index (ASI) representing, per administrative unit, the percentage of cropland (or pasture) areas affected by drought over the growing season. The vegetation health index (VHI), based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature anomalies, is used as a drought indicator. A fused time series of AVHRR data from METOP and NOAA was used to produce a consistent time series of VHI at 1 km resolution. Global phenology maps, indicating the number of growing seasons and their start and end dates, were derived from a multi-annual image set of SPOT-Vegetation (1999-2011). The VHI time series and phenology maps were then combined to produce the ASI for the years 1984 to the present. This allowed evaluation of the suitability of the ASIS to identify drought using historical reports and ancillary data. As a result of this analysis, ASIS was positively evaluated to support the FAO early warning system.