Drought Risk Analysis for Water Assessment at Gauged and Ungauged Sites in the Low Rainfall Regions of Pakistan

In this study, projection of droughts was performed using monthly precipitation and temperature data in the Balochistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan. Rainfall is the main source of water in the study area. The Reconnaissance Drought Index was used to explore drought events from the selected sites of the regions. The index-flood procedure was used to perform the drought analysis in the study area. Two statistical methods were used to select Generalized Pareto distribution as the most acceptable distribution for drought risk assessment. The distribution was estimated through the L-moments approach for both regions. Three problems were addressed in this study. Regional analysis was performed for regional quantiles covering a large area and on-site analysis for each site's drought projections. The Monte Carlo simulations procedure was utilized for reliability assessment of estimated quantiles that proved likeness at lower return periods and uncertainty at higher return periods. Lastly, quadratic regression was performed between drought means and site characteristics for drought quantiles at ungauged sites. According to the results, there are chances of more drought in the future if the recent climatic conditions continue in the study area. The study results will help stakeholders, government, and water resource managers in preparing plans about drought and water availability in the area.